Soft-linked planning and operation of an integrated energy system in Great Britain

Cunningham, Jake (2025) Soft-linked planning and operation of an integrated energy system in Great Britain. PhD thesis, University of Glasgow.

Abstract

The National Energy System Operator (NESO) in Great Britain (GB) is now responsible for integrated planning of the electricity, natural gas and hydrogen systems, placing emphasis on spatial dependence and operational synergies among energy resources. In energy system planning models, operational bottlenecks including transmission congestion, renewable energy curtailment, and load shedding, are undervalued due to a lack of spatial, temporal, and technical resolution.

This thesis proposes, for the first time, the exchange of information between an energy system planning model, which determines the long-term development and investment pathway of energy technologies, and an integrated electricity, natural gas and hydrogen system optimal energy flow model. This soft-link between the models is shown to successfully identify operational challenges arising from longterm energy system planning, while also capturing interactions between individual energy systems by increasing modelling resolution.

The proposed modelling framework is applied to a case study of future energy plans for GB, to assess the operational viability of system expansion plans. Results find insufficient electricity transmission capacity in 2030 to avoid congestion, with curtailment increasing six-fold, and electrical load shed due to lack of supply in the West Midlands of England. Thus, 14 transmission upgrades are recommended to eliminate electricity transmission congestion in 2030, which are effective in avoiding congestion-induced curtailment in 2050. Further analysis of 2050 highlights the need for additional supply in the West Midlands to avoid load shedding as residential and transportation demands are electrified.

The government funded hydrogen clusters are successful in providing early adopters of hydrogen demands and production in 2030, however clusters become net consumers of hydrogen in 2050. Natural gas demand is sustained in 2050 through energy conversion, resulting in overlap of critical natural gas and hydrogen transmission infrastructure, increasing the difficulty of infrastructure conversion.

Ultimately, the soft-link framework proposed here has successfully illuminated the operational impacts of long-term energy system planning, while endogenising the impacts of individual system interactions within the integrated energy system. Additionally, major operational challenges were unearthed from existing long-term plans for the GB energy system, highlighting the critical need for operationally aware integrated energy system planning.

• Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
• Qualification Level: Doctoral
• Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General); T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
• Colleges/Schools: College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering
• Supervisor's Name: Yang, Dr. Jin
• Date of Award: 2025
• Depositing User: Theses Team
• Unique ID: glathesis:2025-85536
• Copyright: Copyright of this thesis is held by the author.
• Date Deposited: 24 Oct 2025 11:33
• Last Modified: 24 Oct 2025 11:38
• Thesis DOI: 10.5525/gla.thesis.85536
• URI: https://theses.gla.ac.uk/id/eprint/85536

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