Could African Swine Fever persist in the feral pig population in Scotland? - Descriptive analysis and individual-based stochastic ASF modelling of the Scottish feral pig population

Kimishima, Miwa (2026) Could African Swine Fever persist in the feral pig population in Scotland? - Descriptive analysis and individual-based stochastic ASF modelling of the Scottish feral pig population. MSc(R) thesis, University of Glasgow.

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) represents a major global threat to the pig industry, and the maintenance and spread of infection via wild boar complicates its control. In Scotland, ASF preparedness is also an urgent concern, yet the potential role of feral pigs remains poorly understood due to limited and fragmented data. This study therefore aimed to: (1) compile and evaluate existing data on feral pigs in Scotland; (2) investigate interactions between feral and outdoor-reared domestic pigs; and (3) model ASF infection dynamics in feral pigs, including persistence, to inform risk assessment and management strategies.

Chapter 1 revealed substantial gaps in the availability and quality of feral pig distribution and abundance data, highlighting the difficulty of obtaining accurate population estimates and the urgent need for systematic monitoring. Chapter 2 provided preliminary evidence and quantitative estimates of interactions between feral and outdoor-reared domestic pigs, including exploratory and aggressive behaviours, suggesting that official records may underestimate the distribution of feral pigs and that groups of feral pigs were observed entering farms simultaneously, representing a non-negligible risk for ASF transmission.

Chapter 3 developed a simulation model of ASF in feral pig populations in Dumfries and Galloway, which indicated that ASF can persist even at very low population densities, with early between-group transmission and carcass-mediated infection being key drivers of persistence. Incorporating survey data from Chapter 2 suggested the range of possible interpretations for farm-based detection probabilities and the actual frequency of visits by feral pigs, in line with the reported data.

Integrating these findings provides a comprehensive understanding of ASF risk in Scotland. Effective management requires reliable data collection, risk-based surveillance, rapid containment, and removal of infectious carcasses. This study illustrates the complex interplay between feral pig ecology, farm management, and disease dynamics, offering important insights for contingency planning and the prioritisation of biosecurity measures.

• Item Type: Thesis (MSc(R))
• Qualification Level: Masters
• Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences; Q Science > QR Microbiology; S Agriculture > SF Animal culture
• Colleges/Schools: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
• Supervisor's Name: Auty, Dr. Harriet and Matthews, Professor Louise
• Date of Award: 2026
• Depositing User: Theses Team
• Unique ID: glathesis:2026-86125
• Copyright: Copyright of this thesis is held by the author.
• Date Deposited: 15 Jul 2026 13:27
• Last Modified: 15 Jul 2026 13:28
• Thesis DOI: 10.5525/gla.thesis.86125
• URI: https://theses.gla.ac.uk/id/eprint/86125