Automation technologies and labour market outcomes

Guo, Kaizhao (2024) Automation technologies and labour market outcomes. PhD thesis, University of Glasgow.

Abstract

Previous research has documented significant correlation between automation technologies and labour market outcomes. Little work, however, has examined regional variations of technological unemployment. This thesis made three strands of contributions. Firstly, it explores the heterogeneous effects across regions from different income groups, based on various forms of automation technologies. Analysis on regional variations of technological unemployment also complements a vast body of literature on Routine Biased Technical Change (RBTC). Secondly, this thesis extends studies of the role of skill shares and industrial structures on net job creation, causing heterogeneous employment effects from automation technologies. Thirdly, this thesis sheds light on the fact that net employment effects are mainly caused by differentials in productivity effects, and displacement effects are prevalent across regions.

This thesis is composed of five chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the research question of this thesis. The conceptual framework highlights that the key determinant behind such heterogeneous effects is the percentage of high skilled workers. With growing proportion of high skilled labour, productivity effects tend to become more pronounced in high-income regions, implying that new job vacancies could complement job destructions from displacement effects. In contrast, such non-negative employment effects are less likely in regions from low- and middle-income groups, due to strong displacement effects induced by lower percentage of high skilled workers.

Based on the conceptual framework, Chapter 2 exploits variations across US states and commuting zones, Chapter 3 explores differences across countries, and Chapter 4 analyses variations among UK workers. Leveraging shift-share IV strategies and generalised model specifications, this thesis finds that the magnitudes of employment reductions are significant and sizeable in low and middle income areas, and rising income levels could cause insignificant employment responses. Further evidence supports that these patterns can be explained by a simple net job creation channel, as displacement effects outweigh productivity effects in low income regions with lower proportion of skilled labour, and job creations are complementing job destructions with growing income levels and higher skill shares. Such technical changes are biased towards high skilled labour force, and are more pronounced in regions with manufacturing sectors.

Chapter 5 concludes, with a discussion of limitations and promising direction of future research, as well as policy implications.

JEL classification: E24, J24; O14; O33.

• Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
• Qualification Level: Doctoral
• Keywords: Automation, displacement effects, productivity effects, net job creations, skill shares.
• Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor; T Technology > T Technology (General)
• Colleges/Schools: College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School
• Supervisor's Name: Ghosal, Professor Sayantan, Koutmeridis, Dr. Theodore and Kanik, Dr. Zafer
• Date of Award: 2024
• Depositing User: Theses Team
• Unique ID: glathesis:2024-84806
• Copyright: Copyright of this thesis is held by the author.
• Date Deposited: 13 Jan 2025 14:10
• Last Modified: 13 Jan 2025 14:51
• Thesis DOI: 10.5525/gla.thesis.84806
• URI: https://theses.gla.ac.uk/id/eprint/84806