Co-evolution of ecosystem services and land use/ land cover change in the mountains of Eastern China

Zhengxin, Zhang (2026) Co-evolution of ecosystem services and land use/ land cover change in the mountains of Eastern China. PhD thesis, University of Glasgow.

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) change, shaped by socio-economic development and climate variability, has profound implications for ecosystem services (ES), particularly in fragile mountain and coastal regions of China. Existing studies of the ES-LULC nexus in China lack systematic review, often short-term and retrospective, with limited use of scenario-based modelling. As a result, the long-term dynamics, vulnerabilities, and future trajectories of socio-ecological systems under interacting socio-economic and climatic drivers remain insufficiently understood.

This dissertation combines a systematic review, long-term empirical analysis, and system dynamics modelling to investigate the co-evolution of LULC and ES in Chinese mountain regions, with Shandong Province as a representative case. 1) The systematic review of 203 articles (2007–2024) shows that ES-LULC research in Chinese mountain regions has grown rapidly but remains uneven in scale, methodology, and regional focus. English-language studies tend to operate at broader spatial and temporal scales using biophysical models, with greater attention to regulating services, whereas Chinese studies are concentrated at smaller regional scales, relying mainly on statistical analysis and value transfer methods, and focus more on provisioning services. Overall, long-term time-series analyses, cross-scale comparisons, and scenario-based assessments remain limited, constraining a systematic understanding of ES evolution, trade-offs, and feedbacks. 2) Using longterm data (1950–2022) and causality testing in Shandong Province, the study reveals that urban expansion and economic growth significantly drove the increase of construction land, intensifying trade-offs between provisioning services such as food production and regulating services such as carbon storage and water regulation. Wetland loss and precipitation decline exacerbated negative feedbacks, accelerating vegetation degradation and drought risks. Overall, system connectivity declined markedly after 1980, resilience weakened, and the socio-ecological system showed a tendency toward functional disturbance and potential reorganization. 3) System dynamics simulations (2020 – 2100) reveal strong nonlinearity and path dependency in ES-LULC trajectories. Under extreme warming and drought, agricultural, forest, and water systems risk synchronous collapse by mid-century, signalling the approach of socio-ecological tipping points. Adaptive management can delay destabilisation but generates unavoidable trade-offs—for example, between food and water or carbon and water. Socio-economic pathways further amplify these dynamics, with sustainability-oriented futures slowing risk accumulation and fossil-fuelled trajectories accelerating systemic decline.

Policy insights include strengthening farmland protection and sustainable management to secure food and carbon storage; scaling up water-saving measures to enhance resilience under climate extremes; conserving wetlands to buffer rainfall decline and drought; and carefully designing afforestation strategies to balance water–carbon trade-offs. Prioritising sustainability-oriented socio-economic pathways offers the most robust option for maintaining long-term system stability.

This dissertation contributes academically by advancing understanding of ES LULC co-evolution in Chinese mountain and regional systems, methodologically by integrating causality testing with system dynamics into a transferable framework, and practically by providing evidence-based insights for land–water–carbon governance in Shandong and other regions facing similar pressures.

• Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
• Qualification Level: Doctoral
• Additional Information: Supported by funding from the China Scholarship Council (CSC) (Grant number: 202208060195).
• Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GF Human ecology. Anthropogeography; H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
• Colleges/Schools: College of Social Sciences > School of Social & Environmental Sustainability
• Funder's Name: China Scholarship Council (CSC)
• Supervisor's Name: Sohel, Dr MD Sarwar Hossain, Shi, Dr John and Xu, Dr Jiren
• Date of Award: 2026
• Depositing User: Theses Team
• Unique ID: glathesis:2026-85714
• Copyright: Copyright of this thesis is held by the author.
• Date Deposited: 27 Jan 2026 09:22
• Last Modified: 27 Jan 2026 09:27
• Thesis DOI: 10.5525/gla.thesis.85714
• URI: https://theses.gla.ac.uk/id/eprint/85714

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